EUROCONTROL has released a new long-time forecast
of flights in Europe. In the most likely of the four scenarios considered, air
traffic in Europe is expected to grow to 16.9 million flights in 2030, i.e. 1.8 times
more than in 2009.
Air transport planners need to take a long-term view, whether they are at
airports, airlines or in the SESAR programme, which is delivering Europe’s air
traffic management system for the 2020s. After the turbulence of 2008 and
2009, this biennial update of the long-term flight forecast aims to help planners
to refine their route to the future.
The average annual growth is likely to be between 1.6% and 3.9%, leading to
between 13.1 and 20.9 million flights in 2030. For the first time, the forecast
includes a scenario on how air traffic might develop when the supply of oil has
peaked. According to the forecast, growth will be faster in the early years,
stronger in Eastern Europe and for arrivals and departures to and from outside
Europe than for intra-European flights, Turkey being the largest generator of
extra flights in European and Germany seeing the biggest number of additional
flights in its airspace.
“There is growth to come over the next 20 years but it may look quite different
from what we have been used to”, said David Marsh, Head of Forecasting.
Each market segment will be different, long-haul different from short-haul and
each part of Europe will be different”, he adds.
Growth will however be limited by airport capacity: Between 0.7 and 5 million
flights will be unaccommodated in 2030, representing from 5% to 19% of the
demand. In addition to unaccommodated demand, airport capacity constraints
have an effect on the flow of operations in the network. The decline in traffic in
2008 and 2009 has eased the pressure on airport capacity but, in the longerterm,
the demand will grow and airports will not always be able to fully respond.
The network will be more vulnerable to delays that will propagate more rapidly
and widely.
“The long-term forecast contains pointers that even today the Network
Management Function will need to consider when planning how to improve
performance in this growing environment and to achieve the EU performance
targets”, concludes David Marsh.
Download the Long-Term Forecast: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
EUROCONTROL: 16.9 million flights expected in 2030
